A 1 percentage-point increase in the unemployment rate, according to Ruhm’s earlier research, is associated with: 0.3 percent to 0.5 percent fewer deaths; a 1 percent to 3 percent decline in traffic deaths; fewer fatal heart attacks; a 0.6 percent reduction in smoking; a 0.4 percent reduction in obesity; and a 0.4 percent increase in physical activity. All told, that 1 percentage-point increase in unemployment is associated with 11,000 fewer deaths, he found.
However, using data from multiple sources, over the 1976-2009 period, Ruhm shows that some sources of death are strongly countercyclical: poisoning and cancer. Two factors are largely driving this variation across causes, Ruhm says. First is a trend related to painkillers. As mental health declines in downturns, it is often manifested by physical symptoms such as pain. In seeking to treat that pain, people may be increasingly putting themselves at risk by taking painkillers, which have become more widely available in recent years and have contributed to a general rise in poisoning deaths. Second, cancer death rates are increasing in economic downturns. That, he suggests, may be because cancer patients are living longer thanks to expensive treatments. Cancer deaths may fall during economic upturns because individuals have better health coverage and more money.
It’s still early, Ruhm warns, and more research has to be done in order to fully examine the cyclical nature of mortality in relation to macroeconomic conditions.
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